Turnout for Geoff Diehl shows ‘total dissatisfaction’ and ‘division’ within MassGOP: Pollster
The midterms revealed highly consequential political shifts, one pollster said Sunday morning — from a new deep divide sabotaging the Massachusetts Republican Party to independent women’s political power in the wake of Roe v. Wade’s overturn.
The 2022 governor race was pretty much decided for the Democrat the day the candidates were set, Suffolk University Political Research Center director David Paleologos told WBZ-TV political analyst Jon Keller on Sunday morning.
“After primary day, it was highly improbable that (Geoff) Diehl — given the demographics — was going to be able to overtake Maura Healey,” Paleologos said.
Keller questioned whether the race was “over the day (Diehl) was endorsed by Donald Trump” or when GOP chairman Jim Lyons decided to go “whole-hog Trumpist.” The suggestions echo a wide swath of analysts’ reporting that many Trump-endorsed candidates performed significantly poorly in races across the country.
In a state with an outgoing moderate Republican governor with sky-high approval ratings, Diehl lost to Democrat Healey 34.9% to 63.5%.
The Suffolk University Political Research Center post-election analysis shows Diehl only received 82% of the Republican vote — “a big number,” the director said.
“Republican voters should be voting 95-96% for the nominee,” Paleologos said. “That many people, the fact is, is critical.”
Forty-one percent of people who voted against Diehl in the GOP primary voted for Healey in the general election, compared to just 35% who stuck with the Republican Party and voted for Diehl. The trend, Paleologos said, is like nothing he’s ever seen before.
“And the independent (candidate) was getting like 20% of those voters, which shows total dissatisfaction and a division within the Republican Party — an issue that Republicans are going to have to deal with on a serious level,” said Paleologos.
Beyond Diehl and Massachusetts, the “red wave” of Republican midterm wins failed to materialize — as Democrats held the Senate and picked up governor seats and Republicans took House control by an unexpectedly narrow margin — for one main reason, Paleologos argued.
“We were able to specifically find a demographic that really ran counter to a red wave — independent women,” said Paleologos.
The Suffolk analysis showed independent women played a key role in races like the New Hampshire Senate race, which was predicted to be contentious but was won by incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan by a large margin.
“Had Roe vs. Wade not been overturned, independent women probably would have voted with independent men,” said Paleologos. … “But what happened was independent women broke from independent men, so they offset — in many cases more than offset — the advantage Republicans had among independent men. That alone really abated and prevented a red wave.”
In the last national Suffolk poll ahead of the midterms, the director said, independent men were pretty evenly split on approval of the Supreme Court following the decision to overturn national abortion rights. Independent women disapproved by about 20 points.
As the “dust settles” more from the midterms, Paleologos predicted, the country will find nationwide “that one demographic really changed the scope and the shape of the midterm 2022 election.”
from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/rQSFMdy
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