What does Lucas Giolito’s injury mean for the Red Sox?

It’s hard to imagine the Red Sox enduring a more crushing setback than what they experienced on Tuesday.

Lucas Giolito, the club’s biggest offseason acquisition and one of the most durable starting pitchers in baseball, is injured and could potentially miss the entire season. His absence will leave an enormous void, one the Red Sox won’t be able to fill easily.

The full ramifications won’t be understood for some time, but there’s no sugarcoating it — this news is a disaster for the Red Sox and could significantly impact the club’s ability to compete in 2024.

Here’s what we know so far and how Giolito’s injury could impact the Red Sox in the short and long term.

What’s Giolito’s prognosis?

Giolito began experiencing discomfort in his right elbow after his last start on Friday, and according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan initial imaging showed he likely has a partially torn UCL and flexor strain which could require season-ending elbow surgery. Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow wouldn’t say whether or not surgery will be necessary, but that Giolito has a “real injury” and will miss time as a result.

“Really tough. Tough for us, tough for Lucas, he’s a guy that takes a lot of pride in his ability to post and that’s certainly something that was attractive to us. I don’t want to speak untilI know exactly what we’re dealing with but I know he’s frustrated and wants to take the ball on Opening Day,” Breslow said. “We’ll evaluate where we are and figure out what the best path forward is.”

If Giolito does not need surgery it’s possible he could still pitch in 2024, but even in a best-case scenario he’d likely miss several months. If Tommy John surgery is necessary then Giolito could miss all of this season and a portion of next season as well.

The fact Giolito of all people is the one to get hurt is particularly unfortunate. The 29-year-old right-hander has been among the most durable pitchers in baseball for the last six years and is coming off a season in which he ranked among MLB’s leaders in starts (33) and innings pitched (184.1).

He was signed specifically to be an innings-eater for a Red Sox club that routinely struggled to pitch deep into games last season, and he also functionally replaced Chris Sale, who was traded the same weekend Giolito signed after missing most of the last four years with various injuries.

Sale, ironically, is currently healthy and has been dominant for the Atlanta Braves this spring. If that remains the case it would be an especially painful twist for a Red Sox organization that hasn’t been able to catch a break these past few years.

What are the financial ramifications?

This past offseason the Red Sox signed Giolito to a two-year, $38.5 million contract with an opt out after the first season and a vesting option for 2026. When the deal was struck the expectation was Giolito would pitch this coming season in Boston and most likely opt out and re-enter the free agent next winter in search of a bigger, long-term deal.

Now that deal has blown up in Boston’s face.

The Red Sox will pay Giolito $19.25 million each of the next two seasons, and if he undergoes Tommy John surgery he could be sidelined for a majority of that time. Instead of getting a motivated, durable starter for 2024 and having $20 million to spend either bringing him back or signing another free agent starter next winter, the club is effectively burning that money this year and crossing its fingers that he comes back and re-emerges as a workhorse sometime in 2025.

Who could fill his spot?

With Giolito sidelined for the foreseeable future, the Red Sox will be even more reliant on their young starters to shoulder the load in 2024.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora has already confirmed Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta will open the season in the rotation, and Kutter Crawford was considered a heavy favorite to earn a spot as well. He should be a lock now, leaving two spots up for grabs.

Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck should have the best chance at rounding out the rotation. Originally the expectation was one of them would earn the No. 5 spot and whoever lost out would move to the bullpen, but now they may both get a chance to prove themselves as starters. Josh Winckowski remains a contender as well, and Breslow pointed to newly signed right-hander Cooper Criswell as a possible option as well.

The big wild card is Jordan Montgomery.

On one hand, Giolito’s injury could prompt the Red Sox to sign the free agent left-hander, who has been one of baseball’s most reliable starters over the last three years and could easily slide into the workhorse spot intended for Giolito. On the other hand, the Red Sox have spent all winter operating with self-imposed budget constraints and it’s hard to envision ownership suddenly spending more money to keep afloat what was already a fringe playoff contender at best.

With nearly $20 million in dead money on the books, it feels more likely the Red Sox will simply hand the keys to their young arms and see how far they can go. That seems to have been the plan all along, only now any semblance of a safety net they once had is gone.

from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/04ZleFg