A Cape Cod shark forecast model: Researchers are trying to predict when and where great whites will roam along the shore
Cape Cod beachgoers in the future could know when great white sharks are most likely to prowl along the shoreline hunting for seals.
Researchers have been collecting shark tagging data for more than a decade, and they’re now taking that data on sharks’ movements to create forecast models.
“Is there some time of day that’s going to be a time you do not want to be in the water? Is there some location at a certain time of day?” shark scientist Greg Skomal with Massachusetts Marine Fisheries said Tuesday at the Atlantic White Shark Conservancy’s Shark Center in Chatham.
“If we see patterns in behavior that allow us to forecast where these animals are likely to be — or when they might be in a certain area — then we can assist with public safety in terms of forecasting areas that might be more dangerous, hypothetically, than others,” he later added.
As sharks feast on seals along the Cape every summer and fall, there has been an increasing number of sharks biting humans.
Since 2012, there have been four shark attacks along the Cape, including one fatal attack, the first in Massachusetts since 1936.
The researchers are now looking at patterns in the sharks’ predatory activity — analyzing the time of day, water temperature, tidal currents and more.
“We’re learning all of this information so we can provide it to the public and provide it to the people, so they can modify their behavior to proactively reduce their risk of having a bad interaction with a white shark,” said Megan Winton, a research scientist at the Atlantic White Shark Conservancy.
She noted that sharks hunt for seals in shallow water close to shore. A recent report that Winton and Skomal worked on revealed that tagged sharks spent almost half (47%) of their time at shallow depths of less than 15 feet.
Sharks were more likely to occupy shallow depths at night during the new moon, according to the research. During the day, tagged sharks were more likely to be at shallow depths during the first and last quarter moon.
“We’re hoping to find patterns which ultimately will lead to predictability and forecasts,” Skomal said.
Winton added, “We’re really trying to provide information that is useful for the general public, as well as for the towns and beach managers to inform their public safety practices as they relate to the presence of white sharks off of our coastline.”
The sharks spend the bulk of their time along the Outer Cape — which is where most of the seals are located.
The sharks begin to arrive in late May, and then detections pick up in June and ramp up in July.
“A lot of this is tightly linked to water temperatures,” Skomal said. “If we get a really warm spring, like we had, the numbers will actually beef up a little bit quicker.”
The peak shark detection months are August, September and October.
The shark activity then falls off in November. Some sharks will stick around and pass through in December. The latest detection ever was Dec. 17.
from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/3qI2EfW
Post a Comment