NHL Stanley Cup playoffs: Bruins-Capitals matchups

This matchup was simply meant to be, wasn’t it?

Ever since Zdeno Chara signed with Washington, choosing a better promise of playing time than the B’s were willing to offer, it seemed inevitable that these two teams would meet in the playoffs. No reason to wait around for it, either.

In any other year, the main story line would have centered around Tom Wilson and the fallout from his head shot on Brandon Carlo that knocked the defenseman out for weeks and got Wilson suspended for seven games. But that is just a mere subplot in this series.

Here is how we see it breaking down. And keep in mind, there are some movable pieces, especially for the Capitals.

FORWARDS

BRUINS

Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak

Taylor Hall-David Krejci-Craig Smith

Nick Ritchie-Sean Kuraly-Charlie Coyle

Jake DeBrusk-Curtis Lazar-Chris Wagner

Extras: Trent Frederic, Karson Kuhlman

CAPITALS

Alex Ovechkin-Nicklas Backstrom-Anthony Mantha

Conor Sheary-Lars Eller-Tom Wilson

Daniel Sprong-Michael Raffl-Daniel Carr

Carl Hagelin-Nic Dowd-Garnet Hathaway

Extras: Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, Phillippe Maillet, Garrett Pilon

THE SKINNY: These lines are as of Thursday. Expect the Bruins to stay the same for Saturday. The Caps’ could get some potent pieces back. Oshie (lower body) skated but was not a full participant in Thursday’s practice, but could be ready for Game 1. Though he was minus-6 in seven games vs. Boston, he had 5-3-8 totals. Kuznetsov has been on the Covid list for 10 days.

When healthy, both top six forward groups are elite. But the B’s (4-2-2 against the Caps) had an edge, especially when matched up against Ovechkin, who finished a mind-boggling minus-13 in the eight-game season series against the B’s. Boston’s top-end forwards have a slight advantage over the Caps’, and they may have to have the same kind of success. Led by Bergeron, the B’s led the league in faceoff percentage (55.3%), far outdistancing the 22nd Caps (49.2%). The B’s top forwards also play more responsibly than the Caps’.

But if the Caps get a trickle-down effect with returning players, their bottom six could turn this category in their favor. The Bruins have some pieces to be just fine lower in the lineup, but both the third and fourth lines were works-in-progress at the end of the regular season. The third line of Ritchie, Kuraly and Coyle showed promise that it could be the heavy line coach Bruce Cassidy has been trying to create, but it didn’t have much time to jell before Coyle had to miss the last four games of the regular season. The lone constant on the fourth line is Curtis Lazar, whose wings have ranged from the speed-skill combo of DeBrusk and Karson Kuhlman to grinders Trent Frederic and Wagner. No fourth combo has had much time together.

The Caps’ third line could be populated by a couple of Cup winners in Sheary and Eller. But the fourth line has a genuine identity, with the speed of Hagelin complemented by the grit and edge of Dowd and Hathaway. In a matchup as close as this, a fourth line can be the difference. Just remember how pivotal the Blues’ fourth line was with Oskar Sundqvist and Ivan Barbashev in the 2019 Cup finals.

THE EDGE: Capitals. If – a very big if – they’re healthy.

DEFENSE

BRUINS

Matt Grzelcyk-Charlie McAvoy

Mike Reilly-Brandon Carlo

Jeremy Lauzon-Kevan Miller

Extras: Jarred Tinordi, Connor Clifton, Steven Kampfer

CAPITALS

Dmitry Orlov-John Carlson

Brenden Dillon-Justin Schultz

Zdeno Chara-Nick Jensen

Extras: Martin Fehervary, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Michael Kempny

THE SKINNY: Out of Chara’s long shadow, which had served him very well in his development, McAvoy has blossomed into the No. 1 defensemen everyone expected him to be. He’s even starting to make his presence felt on a second power-play unit that has been getting more time since the trade deadline and the acquisition of Hall. Reilly has solidified the second pair with Carlo and has made all the pieces around him fit better. The third pair is a strong, physical tandem while Miller has more mobility than he’s given credit for. In certain defensive situations, Lauzon and Grzelcyk could flip. The strength of the group is mobility.

That is not the case with the Caps’ left side after you get past Orlov. Chara, as we all know, still has strong attributes at the age of 44, starting with his 6-foot-9 frame and condor-like reach. Also his high hockey IQ, knowing what he can and can’t get away with, has allowed him to play a key role. Quickness, however, was not a characteristic when he was in his prime and that vulnerability becomes more pronounced with age. Dillon, meanwhile, has had a decent year but can be beaten. He was plus-15 on the season but minus-5 vs. Boston. If the B’s can play behind the D, they can have success. The Caps finished 17th in the league in overall goals against (2.88) and 5-on-5 goals against (107). And that’s not all on the goaltending, mediocre as it may have been.

THE EDGE: Bruins

GOALTENDING

BRUINS

Tuukka Rask

Jeremy Swayman

CAPITALS

Vitek Vanacek

Craig Anderson

THE SKINNY: The Caps’ had planned on having the tandem of Henrik Lundqvist and Ilya Samsonov, but Lundqvist’s heart ailment prevented him playing and Samsonov was limited to 19 games due to Covid and injuries. Their Plan B has been OK, not much more, despite Vanacek posting a 21-10-4 record with a passable .908 save percentage. Vanacek will give them rebounds, the B’s just have to get there.

Rask, meanwhile, has had a weird year. His .913 save percentage is the lowest of his career but he hasn’t gone through any extended funk. He endured the longest time on the shelf in his career, playing just a period in five weeks. But when he returned, Rask was mostly very good, though he was just so-so in his last two starts.

Meanwhile, rookie Swayman, who has been excellent in his 10 NHL games (7-3, .945), has given every sign that he’s the B’s next No. 1, and is ready if Rask falters.

THE EDGE: Bruins.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Despite losing penalty-kill horse Chara, the Bruins maintained their excellence on the kill, finishing second to the Vegas Golden Knights with an 86% kill rate. Here’s the catch. They weren’t very good against the Caps’ third-ranked power-play (24.8% success rate). Washington scored nine times on 29 tries in the first seven games before Tuesday’s throwaway. If Bruins fans want to look on the bright side, there is a catch to that catch. Three of those nine PPGs came in the 8-1 debacle on April 11 in which nearly the entire B’s defense corps was on the shelf. The B’s did score a couple of shorthanded goals.

The B’s power play, meanwhile, slipped in the second half of the season, going from the top unit in the league to finishing ninth (21.9%). Pastrnak has managed to get his points, but teams have taken away his one-timer. What’s more, the B’s were just 3-for-22 in the first seven games against the Caps’ fifth-ranked PK (84%).

THE EDGE: Capitals

COACHING

Bruce Cassidy vs. Peter Laviolette

Cassidy is a terrific coach. He took over a team in 2017 that was sliding toward its third straight DNQ, righted the ship and had the Bruins in the Cup Final two years later. He’s got a Jack Adams Award and a .612 win percentage. But of four coaches left in the East Division, he’s the only one without a Cup, finishing one game shy in 2019.

Laviolette, meanwhile, might have the most impressive and varied resume of any of the four coaches. He’s become a quick-fix specialist. He won a Cup in Carolina and made trips to the finals with Nashville and Philadelphia, where he engineered one of the great comebacks in NHL history after being down 0-3 in the series and then 3-0 in Game 7. Anyone remember against whom that was?

THE EDGE: Capitals.

INTANGIBLES

Health is always a murky concept in pro sports, and it gets even fuzzier when the playoffs start. But it could play a big part in this series. The B’s appear to be the healthiest they’ve been all year. Coyle is coming off an upper body injury and missed the last four regular season games, but he was a full participant in Thursday’s practice. Ondrej Kase is back in day-to-day status (he was not on the ice on Thursday), but he hasn’t been part of the B’s equation almost all season. The Caps, meanwhile, are nursing a host of maladies. Beyond Oshie and Kuznetsov, Carlson and Ovechkin also missed time down the stretch. Kempny is close to a return from an Achilles injury but hasn’t played all season.

THE EDGE: Bruins

THE PICK: Bruins in six.

from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/3hqKI6E