MLB 2021 season preview: A brand new game after the 60-game season

J.D. Martinez isn’t really as bad as he was in 2020.

Or so we’ll find out this summer.

Entering the 2021 MLB season, one of the biggest storylines will be learning just how much stock the 60-game pandemic-altered season was actually worth.

There were plenty of reasons to doubt what we were seeing as worth reading into for the future, and for players like Martinez, a new rule changed everything.

Major League Baseball probably overreacted to the sign-stealing scandals while restricting players from accessing in-game video, something that had been part of the game for decades.

Little by little, players started making their complaints heard. At first it seemed a little tacky. Were big league millionaires really whining that they couldn’t analyze their performance until after the game?

But as more and more players became vocal about it, there seemed to be a legitimate case that offensive results in 2020 weren’t totally representative of a player’s true value.

“They should at least have asked us what we think about it,” Twins masher Nelson Cruz told The Athletic last season. “It feels like we’re in Triple-A or the minors.”

For Cruz, it didn’t matter. He hit .303 with a .992 OPS and 16 homers.

For others, like Martinez, it did. He hit .213 with a .680 OPS and seven homers.

“It definitely hurt me a bit,” Martinez said this spring. “Obviously I had to change my routine to something I wasn’t used to. It’s something I grew up with in the minors. Like I’ve said a million times, it’s part of a routine, and it’s something that kind of just got taken away from me.

“I’m excited that this year we’re going to have it back in a sense.”

All four winners of the two leagues’ major awards (MVPs Jose Abreu and Freddie Freeman, and Cy Youngs Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer) were first-time winners, just the second time in the last five years that’s happened.

There was the weirdness of the COVID-19 protocols and the fear of the deadly pandemic that was on its way toward killing more than a half-million Americans, and counting. Several of the game’s top players opted out, including a few who called it quits after the season had already started. Many players who chose to participate couldn’t see their families.

There was the oddity of the regional schedule, with American League teams playing National League teams with unusual regularity and normal divisions being reset.

There were new rules, with a designated hitter in the National League, a three-batter minimum, expanded rosters, expanded playoffs, seven-inning double-headers and a man on second base to start extra innings.

All this made the difficulty in judging a small sample size of just 60 games even more treacherous.

Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts said of Martinez, “I think that’s definitely one of the reasons that he didn’t perform to the level that we all know that he does, and he’s capable of. But I know for a fact that this year he is gonna bounce back in a big way… He would have been my MVP pick — I said it last year – but it’s kind of tough for a DH to win. So if he plays the outfield a little bit more, I’ll stick with my pick.”

Entering 2021, MLB announced there will be in-game video once again, but with a twist.

Players will have to wait until the end of the half-inning to access it. And instead of going into the tunnel, they’ll have to watch video in the dugout on MLB-approved iPads. The video footage will be edited so that catchers’ signs won’t be viewable.

“It’s a step in the right direction,” White Sox manager Tony La Russa told the Associated Press.

It’s a young man’s game — or is it?

The narrative across baseball is that 2020 once again proved it’s skewing younger. But that may not be the case.

There’s only two parts of the game that consistently produces better results for younger players: speed and defense.

When it comes to pitching and hitting, the game’s youngest players performed just as well as the game’s oldest in 2020.

Take a look: there were 142 position players who qualified for the batting title last year. Of the 20 youngest players, 14 of them had an OPS higher than the MLB average of .740. Roughly the same number, 15 of the 20 oldest players, also finished above .740.

On the pitching side, there were similar results. There were 42 pitchers to qualify for an ERA title. Of the nine youngest, eight of them had an ERA under the MLB average of 4.45. Of the nine oldest, there were also eight below the league average.

The only noticeable difference came in overall position player WAR, where defense and speed are also considered. Thirteen of the 20 youngest position players had a WAR of 1.0 or higher, while just seven of the 20 oldest players hit that mark.

The two World Series teams, the Dodgers and Rays, both had rosters that fell into the middle third in MLB’s average ages, perhaps debunking the myth that youth is taking over baseball.

Future Hall of Famers lost valuable at-bats

For the game’s oldest players, the short season in 2020 will undoubtedly impact the history books.

A 40-year-old Albert Pujols hit just six homers. He only needed four to pass Willie Mays (660) for fifth all-time, but with 662 career home runs, he remains a long-shot to catch Alex Rodriguez (696) for fourth. Barry Bonds (762), the late Hank Aaron (755) and Babe Ruth (714) are holding steady in the top three.

Pujols is one of the more interesting players in baseball in 2021. He’s 41 years old and entering the last year of the 10-year deal he signed with the Angels. He’s told reporters this spring he’s uncertain if it’ll be his final season or if he’ll consider hitting the free agent market one last time next winter. Would he return to the St. Louis Cardinals for a farewell tour unlike any seen before?

“That’s like the million-dollar question,” Pujols told the USA Today this spring. “Everybody asks me that. Hey, I don’t know what’s going to happen. This is the last year of my contract, and I feel like I can play. I feel good. My body feels great. Mentally, I feel like I can continue to play. But I don’t know, we’ll see what happens.”

Only six players have ever reached 500 homers and 3,000 hits, and Pujols is one of them. Aaron, Rodriguez, Willie Mays, Rafael Palmeiro and Eddie Murray are the others.

Miguel Cabrera could join them this year.

Cabrera, who turns 38 in April, has been on a steady and sharp decline since the start of the 2017 season. He hit just .250 with a .746 OPS and 10 homers last year, mostly as the Tigers’ DH. He still has three years remaining on his deal and will make $94 million in that span.

He’s at 487 career home runs and 2,866 hits. If he matches his 139 hits from 2019, he’ll hit 3,000 this year. But he hasn’t hit more than 12 homers in a season since 2017.

Both Pujols’ and Cabrera’s contracts represent a reminder that lifetime contracts rarely work out for the teams. Neither the Angels (who also have Mike Trout and his $426 million deal) nor the Tigers have won a World Series with future Hall of Famers soaking up large portions of their payroll over the last decade.

Neither the Phillies or the Yankees have reached the World Series since adding Bryce Harper ($330 million) and Giancarlo Stanton ($325 million; originally signed with the Marlins) on their massive contracts. The Yankees also have Gerritt Cole ($324 million) burning a hole in their pockets.

The Rockies moved on from Nolan Arenado ($260 million) and his massive contractual obligation, which will be taken over by the St. Louis Cardinals.

That brings all the attention to the Dodgers and Padres, who should battle it out in the NL this year.

The Dodgers are coming off a World Series title in the final year of Mookie Betts’ arbitration eligibility before he was due to hit free agency. But they locked him up on a $365 million deal that will pay him through his age-39 season, a commitment the Red Sox never felt comfortable making.

The Padres, meanwhile, have Manny Machado and his $300 million contract as well as budding star Fernando Tatis Jr., who signed a $340 million extension this off-season to keep him in San Diego through his age-35 season.

Offseason winners

Winning the off-season rarely leads to winning the postseason, but the Dodgers and Padres are looking mighty good on paper.

The Dodgers added Trevor Bauer on one of the most bizarre contracts in baseball history. They’ll pay him $40 million in 2021, one of the highest one-year salaries in sports history. He can opt out after ’21 or return to the Dodgers to make a remarkable $45 million in ’22. If he doesn’t opt out after ’22, he’ll make $17 million in ’23 before becoming a free agent.

The Padres not only have some of the best young talent in the game, but added a handful of proven players this winter, including Cy Young winner Blake Snell, last year’s runner-up Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Mark Melancon, Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim.

Keep an eye on the Cardinals and how Arenado performs away from Coors Field.

The Mets could be the most interesting team in the league, with Jacob deGrom throwing 102 mph in spring training and looking for his third Cy Young Award in four years. Noah Syndergaard is due back from Tommy John surgery mid-season. Marcus Stroman is back after missing the ’20 season recovering from surgery. And they added Carlos Carrasco to the rotation from the Indians in the same trade that sent superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor to Queens.

The Blue Jays could surprise, with George Springer, Marcus Semien and a handful of talented free agent pitchers going to Toronto.

The Braves look like contenders after re-signing Marcel Ozuna while adding Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly to the rotation.

The Phillies spent some money after hiring “Dealin’ Dave” Dombrowski to run their front office.

And don’t forget some key manager changes: La Russa is back in the dugout in Chicago, Alex Cora returns to Boston, A.J. Hinch is back after his suspension to manage the Tigers and Terry Francona returns to Cleveland after missing last season with health problems.

from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/3u1NrXn