Coronavirus herd immunity: Slow vaccine rollout and new variants jeopardize timeline
As new coronavirus variants enter the U.S. amid a bumpy vaccine rollout, infectious disease experts are concerned about the timeline for reaching the level of herd immunity that’s needed to ease restrictions and get kids fully back in school.
The production of the vaccines is “not anywhere near the level of demand,” said Davidson Hamer, a Boston University infectious diseases specialist.
“At the rate we’re going, it’s going to take well into mid to late spring to get close to pulling back seriously,” he said of the virus restrictions.
“I think the biggest delay is really the vaccine and allowing us to get there faster,” Hamer added. “I think all this could slow the progress toward 70% or thereabouts, which we estimate we need for herd immunity.”
As coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been dropping in Massachusetts, three more contagious virus variants have been detected in the U.S.
Three cases of the U.K. variant have been confirmed in the Bay State, and experts say it’s likely the other two variants are already here in the state.
“Based on what’s been happening in other parts of the world, they are anticipated to spread more rapidly,” Hamer said.
Meanwhile, the vaccine rollout has been slower than expected. Fewer than 500,000 people in Massachusetts have received at least one dose of the vaccine as of Sunday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. More than 115,000 people in the state have received both doses.
“I really do think that when the kinks get worked out and when we have a more consistent supply and more consistency in knowing what’s coming to us, it will start to go more quickly,” said Revere Public Health Director Lauren Buck. “Obviously we don’t want to delay in reaching herd immunity.”
“I do think that once those issues are worked out, once the supply chain is more consistent, I think we’ll be able to start going much quicker and hopefully we’ll be able to catch up some of those timelines,” she said.
Herd immunity should be achieved sometime in the late summer to early fall, predicted Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security.
“But we’ll probably start to see the benefits much before that when the vulnerable populations are vaccinated, which helps prevent serious infections, hospitalizations and deaths,” he said.
Between the slow vaccine rollout and new variants, the president of the American Federation of Teachers Massachusetts said she’s worried about getting kids fully back in classrooms by September. Beth Kontos added, “My concern is this new virus strain that is even more contagious. Just when we think we might have something under control, something pops up.”
from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/3cz0NoJ
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