COVID cases and deaths will be worse in the winter than in spring surge, per latest projections

Coronavirus cases and deaths across the country will increase to levels higher than the spring surge, according to a recent projection, but Massachusetts is one of few states that isn’t on track for another shutdown.

“The sheer number of cases we are expecting is going to outweigh the benefits of treatment we are seeing now,” said Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The latest COVID-19 forecast from the IHME, a research institution that is part of the University of Washington, projects 439,000 cumulative coronavirus deaths nationwide by March 1 and a peak of daily deaths in mid-January at 2,200 a day.

Daily infections in the United States are expected to reach 325,000 by early January.

“The weather and the season is against us,” said Mokdad. He said he is “very concerned” due to nationwide coronavirus fatigue and more indoor gatherings due to cold weather.

He added that although a vaccine provides a light at the end of the tunnel, and will help greatly in the long run, a COVID-19 vaccine won’t arrive in time to help with the struggles of the winter season.

Mask use in the U.S. stands at around 67%, according to the data, but an increase to 95% could save nearly 70,000 lives by March, he said.

Another glimmer of hope is the amount of progress made in the medical community since the pandemic hit, “Our physicians, our nurses, our health professionals are much better right now at treating COVID-19. They have more experience right now,” said Mokdad.

Massachusetts has one of the best mask use rates in the country, about 81%, a statistic that Mokdad called “very encouraging.”

He added that mobility in Massachusetts, tracked by cell phone data, is declining, “People in Massachusetts are doing the right things and what it takes to control the virus.”

He added, “The policy of the state and advisories of the state have been sound as well, and have saved a lot of lives.”

Coronavirus cases in the Bay State have been steadily increasing in recent weeks and have even sat above 2,000 daily cases, but Mokdad said the IHME data does not project the need for a total lockdown for the state.

The forecasts also show that there will not be a shortage of ICU beds in Massachusetts, “The state has a very good capacity when it comes to medical treatment,” said Mokdad.

Projections for Massachusetts show that by March, there will be more than 14,000 coronavirus deaths and 3,895 daily infections. Daily deaths are expected to be around 40.

Despite a tough winter ahead, Mokdad said a coronavirus vaccine that can prevent future waves is in the home stretch.

from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/3pnZM6V