Majority of Massachusetts coronavirus clusters are from households
The overwhelming majority of coronavirus clusters in the state are coming from households — a stat of little surprise to infectious diseases experts, but one they say underscores the need for caution as the holidays approach.
“All it takes is one person that’s shedding a lot of virus and a good part of a household or family gathering could be infected,” Boston University infectious diseases specialist Dr. Davidson Hamer said. “If people go out and spread it to others, than you can sort of have a snowball effect — a mini version of the Biogen conference.”
Household transmission accounts for a whopping 87.7% of new and ongoing coronavirus clusters identified by the state between Sept. 27 and Oct. 24, new data released Thursday by the Department of Public Health shows.
Out of 4,395 total clusters identified in that time period, 3,854 emerged from households and accounted for 7,428 of the 9,391 total coronavirus cases linked to clusters. The state defines a cluster as two or more related cases.
Long-term care facilities produced the next-highest number of clusters, 141, and 811 cases, followed by child care, with 55 clusters and 78 cases. Some settings produced higher numbers of clusters but lower numbers of overall cases, such as industrial settings that had 34 clusters and 65 cases, versus correctional facilities that reported eight clusters with 177 cases.
Household clusters make up only about a third for the roughly 20,000 cases tallied from late September to late October, according to the state.
But state officials and medical experts warn there is a “substantial” risk for increased household transmission if people don’t follow their pleas not to gather indoors with large groups of family or friends for the upcoming holidays.
“There’s clearly a very gradually rising second wave based on multiple metrics,” Hamer said. “If we have more people gathering and crossing between households at this point in time, it’s just going to lead to further promulgation and it’s going to exacerbate the situation rather than help control it.”
Dr. Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at South Shore Health, said being indoors has proved “much more of a spreader” of the virus than being outdoors. And he said patients’ average viral loads have risen “exponentially” since the summer, making COVID-19 “much more contagious.”
With daily caseloads repeatedly topping 1,000 for the first time since May, more than a third of municipalities now at high-risk for transmission and levels of the virus in wastewater not seen since the spring, Ellerin said holiday gatherings could “really escalate” the situation.
“It is not good,” Ellerin said. “It’s a perfect storm for transmission.”
from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/2GdEh6S
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