In N.H., political watchers say Trump and Biden likely locked in a closer race than polls show
PORTSMOUTH, N.H. — Alison Hogg sees President Trump’s name plastered across yard signs and flying high on “many, many, many flags.”
She thinks Trump’s support in the state that handed him his first primary victory in 2016 — and that he almost won that November — remains “strong.”
But recent polls have shown a different story in New Hampshire, one that puts Democratic nominee Joe Biden ahead by 11 points, according to the Real Clear Politics average, with little more than a week until the final votes are cast in the 2020 election.
“The polls have become a very scary thing,” Hogg, a Fremont, N.H., Trump supporter, told the Herald this week. “I don’t think they’re right.”
Trump will touch down in Londonderry on Sunday for his fourth campaign rally in the Granite State this cycle, a recent addition to an increasingly packed pre-election, post-coronavirus swing state sweep as the incumbent works to change the trajectory of a race that moved away from him as the pandemic raged — but that analysts say remains within his grasp.
Recent polls show a tighter race in other battleground states — ones that offer far larger electoral prizes than New Hampshire’s four votes — keeping both campaigns’ focus largely elsewhere this cycle.
But some voters and analysts feel the race in the Granite State is closer than it appears on paper — a belief veteran GOP strategist Mike Dennehy says is reflected in the Trump team’s continued attention here.
Dennehy cited a recent report from those behind the Granite State Poll discussing the “spiral of silence” that keeps some Trump voters from speaking up publicly in support of a candidate viewed as “unpopular.”
Biden led by 12 points in the most recent Granite State Poll in mid-October. But the pollsters analyzed the results and found more than 60% of New Hampshire voters who back Trump said they would not put a bumper sticker on their car or a sign in their yard “out of fear of vandalism.” And 45% said they don’t talk about their support for Trump with friends or co-workers, while 42% said they don’t talk about it with family.
“The unwillingness of Trump voters to publicly demonstrate their support may lead to an underestimation of Trump support in public opinion polls,” the pollsters wrote.
Dennehy said he believes that Trump voters are “very silent the way they were in 2016.” The strategist who worked on Rick Perry’s and the late John McCain’s presidential bids said it’s likely only a five-point race “at most.”
“I continue to believe President Trump has a good chance of winning New Hampshire and nationally,” Dennehy said.
But Londonderry Democrat Sangita Patel said she’s “confident” Biden will emerge the victor in New Hampshire.
“I have seen the Trump signs in town, but most are from those people that voted for Trump in 2016,” Patel said. “They are the die-hard Trumpsters.”
Trump’s campaign invested early in New Hampshire this cycle, with officials believing they could flip the state he lost by less than 3,000 votes to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Both campaigns have dispatched high-profile surrogates. But the president’s scheduled appearance on Sunday is his second trip to the Granite State since the primary, while Biden hasn’t been here since he fled before the polls closed in February, and his running mate, U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, hasn’t set foot in the state since last year.
Trump New Hampshire co-chair Lou Gargiulo said he believes the incumbent will win New Hampshire “overwhelmingly.”
“We’ve knocked on thousands and thousands of doors, and we’re getting a good response,” Gargiulo said. “The various events, the sign waves, the car parades — we’re very excited about what we’re seeing here.”
Republican Susan Parker of Greenland, N.H. — who said she was still “listening” to the candidates atop the tickets when she attended Vice President Mike Pence’s Portsmouth rally on Wednesday — said the race seems “tighter” than polls suggest.
“You can’t predict who wins from poll results and money raised,” Parker said, adding that this election is drawing out “many people who have not been engaged in the political process before — both Republicans and Democrats.”
Karl Hubner, an independent voter from Hampstead who’s described himself as “GOP-ish” but said he would not be voting for Trump, said “there are definitely more Trump signs, and prevailing wisdom says that the incumbent gets a five-point bump.”
“But I still think he will get crushed,” Hubner said. “People from New Hampshire are just tired of the circus.”
from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/34reVMf
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