Massachusetts coronavirus transmission rate rises to ‘worrisome’ level, second highest in U.S.
Massachusetts coronavirus data in recent weeks is sparking alarm among infectious disease specialists, who say that state officials must consider implementing restrictions if transmission rates keep rising.
The Bay State’s coronavirus reproduction rate — the average number of people who become infected by a contagious person — has steadily climbed to its highest rate since the end of March.
Massachusetts’ reproduction rate is now up to 1.21, the second highest rate in the U.S. behind Wyoming’s 1.29, according to the website Rt.live, which tracks transmission rates for each state.
When the rate is above 1.0, that means the virus can spread quickly.
“It’s a worrisome trend,” said Davidson Hamer, a leading infectious diseases specialist at Boston University. “If the reproduction rate is less than 1, then transmission is under control. But once it’s over 1, then there’s local transmission and risk for continued spread.”
Back in March, the rate was between 2 and 3, he noted. That was a “completely uncontrolled reproduction rate,” he said.
“At 1.2, there’s risk for continued spread,” said Hamer, a professor at Boston University School of Public Health and School of Medicine. “It’s definitely something we need to watch, and we may have to pull back and limit densities of people if it continues to rise.”
Massachusetts in late June boasted having the country’s lowest COVID-19 transmission rate of 0.67 at the time.
But since Aug. 16, when the rate was at 1.0, it has climbed steadily to 1.21.
The increase is most likely tied to house parties and college campuses opening back up, said Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at South Shore Health. He cited the CDC summer study that revealed how the 20-29 age group was recently responsible for 20% of transmission, and that age group has been infecting older people.
Ellerin said he’s increasingly concerned about indoor gatherings as the weather gets colder.
“As the percent positive rate rises and there are more indoor gatherings, that could be a confluence of a perfect storm that leads to more hot spots,” he said. “We have to watch the numbers carefully and put our foot back on the brakes if we’re seeing increases in cases.”
Data from COVID-19 detections in wastewater in the Boston area is also worrisome, Hamer said. The data from the pilot study to track wastewater at the Deer Island Treatment Plant has shown a gradual upward trend since last month, he said.
“Clearly transmission is going on,” Hamer said. “We need to watch this closely.”
Gov. Charlie Baker, who on Tuesday loosened some coronavirus restrictions in low-risk communities, also noted that cooler weather could lead to more cases.
“It’s quite possible that Massachusetts may see more cases as people head indoors in the fall, and especially as we continue to expand our testing protocols,” Baker said. “That is one of the main reasons why we cannot quit and should not quit now.”
The governor added, “People need to stay vigilant so that we can continue to move forward.”
from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/2S8GHG7
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