Guregian: Patriots roster projection as season nears

We’re roughly at the halfway point of training camp, and have reached the end of the viewing window for the media.

For the Patriots, the Miami Dolphins will be arriving in Foxboro for the season opener in just two weeks. Before long, the 80-man roster will ultimately be trimmed to 53.

Bill Belichick has adapted practices to try and give himself and the coaching staff the best feel for players without the benefit of having any preseason games. Thursday and Friday were scrimmage days.

During the past week as a whole, or “dog days of camp,” as Belichick called it, the Patriots coaching staff was in full “evaluation” mode.

That being said, it won’t make the decisions any easier for who stays, and who goes, not to mention who makes up a practice squad which will now include 16 players, instead of 12.

Based on watching many of the practices thus far, here’s our second crack at how the 53-man will shake out in a few weeks.

QUARTERBACK (3)

MAKING THE TEAM

Brian Hoyer

Cam Newton

Jarrett Stidham

FALLING SHORT

Brian Lewerke

The Herald’s Take: The so-called quarterback competition fizzled when Stidham turned up with some type of lower body injury, and became a limited participant in camp. While the anticipation was for Newton to win the job, it would have been nice if Stidham pushed him, and was up to the task of competing. That being said, it was going to be a tall order for Stid the Kid to overtake a former NFL MVP. And while Newton hasn’t exactly blown the competition away, he has progressed in terms of establishing chemistry with his primary group of receivers, namely Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry, as well as running backs James White, Rex Burkhead and Damien Harris.

Two weeks in, however, he’s still struggling a bit with the playbook, and getting the ball out quickly. But while he’s had some shaky moments making reads, his arm looks good, and he’s moving fine. Of the three, Hoyer has been the most consistent. He knows the offense the best. But it’s hard to think of the Patriots moving forward with Hoyer. Maybe it makes sense to keep two, but three is the better choice this time out.

RUNNING BACK (4)

MAKING THE TEAM

Rex Burkhead

Damien Harris

Sony Michel

Lamar Miller (PUP)

James White

OPTING OUT 

Brandon Bolden

FALLING SHORT

J.J. Taylor

The Herald’s Take: Michel emerged off the PUP list on Wednesday. It’ll be interesting to see if he can show enough in a small window to overtake Harris and get the top job back. From the small sample size already, Michel, who had offseason foot surgery, looked fit, and ready to compete. He’s trimmed down, and showed a little pop in his step. But his future role is uncertain. Harris really took advantage of Michel’s absence, coupled with Miller also being on PUP. Harris emerged as one of the stars of the camp, if not the top star. He’s utilized the added reps to showcase his rugged style. He’s also proven to be an effective pass-catcher.

Undrafted rookie Taylor has also made good use of the extra time afforded him, but with Michel’s re-emergence, loses the numbers game. Running backs coach Ivan Fears has professed some love for Taylor, comparing him to former Patriot Dion Lewis thanks to his shiftiness and ability to catch the ball. Taylor has certainly earned consideration, but just doesn’t get in at this point. Maybe practice squad for him. Burkhead and White have also had good camps to this point. If Miller becomes active will they carry five? That’s the biggest question going forward.

FULLBACK (0)

MAKING THE TEAM

*Jakob Johnson

OPTING OUT

Dan Vitale

FALLING SHORT

The Herald’s Take: Johnson has been impressive during camp. As a blocker, he demolishes people in his path. He’ll take over as the lead blocking-fullback. The choice is easy. He’s definitely made strides since last year before suffering a season-ending injury. With Johnson being a part of the NFL’s International Player Pathway Program, he doesn’t count toward the 53-man roster, hence the asterisk. He also really doesn’t have much competition. Rookie Dalton Keene and recently acquired Paul Quessenberry, both tight ends, have gotten some work at fullback. The backup will likely come from the tight end group.

WIDE RECEIVER (6)

MAKING THE TEAM

Damiere Byrd

Julian Edelman

N’Keal Harry

Gunner Olszewski

Mohamed Sanu

Matthew Slater

OPTING OUT

Marqise Lee

FALLING SHORT

Will Hastings

Jakobi Meyers

Devin Ross

Jeff Thomas

Isaiah Zuber

The Herald’s Take: Edelman and Harry have established some chemistry with Newton. And while Edelman is a given, it’s hard to know what to call Harry. He strung together a couple of good practices last week after missing time early in camp. Then he flipped back into disappointment mode. On the plus side, Olszewski, who didn’t make the cut in our pre-camp projection, is now a slam dunk. He’s been one of the best players in camp. He was the primary punt returner last year, and should reclaim that position. He’s also stood out as a receiver. After adding some muscle, and improving his route-running, “Gun-Show” is a lock.

Sanu? After surgery to repair his troublesome ankle, the hope was Sanu would be the type of impactful player that was expected. He hasn’t been bad, he just hasn’t popped. Byrd also hasn’t stood out, but the Patriots need some speed on the outside. That likely means Ross, who made a ton of plays especially in the early going, won’t make it. Maybe the 2019 undrafted free agent, who has caught the coaching staff’s attention, will catch a break. Not so for Meyers, who has been hampered with an undisclosed injury, reportedly a shoulder. Was hoping to reserve a spot for undrafted rookie Thomas, but he’s only practiced fully a few days. There’s still time, but for now, Ross, Thomas and Meyers are on the outside looking in. Ditto Zuber.

TIGHT END (3)

MAKING THE TEAM

Devin Asiasi

Ryan Izzo

Dalton Keene

FALLING SHORT

Jake Burt

Paul Quessenberry

OPTING OUT

Matt LaCosse

The Herald’s Take: At this juncture, second-year tight end Izzo will join Asiasi and Keene. Izzo, primarily a blocker, has made a few eye-catching plays downfield. The rookie duo have looked pretty good catching the football. They’ve also blocked fairly well. Asiasi injured an ankle Tuesday, and was limited in the following few practices. Burt, the undrafted rookie out of Boston College, has opened some eyes. He’s made some plays, and drawn praise. Hard to see him overtaking Izzo. Quessenberry is a long shot, especially having been out of football the past five years, as well as being a converted defensive end.

OFFENSIVE LINE (9)

MAKING THE TEAM

David Andrews

Yodny Cajuste

Korey Cunningham

Jermaine Eleumunor

Hjalte Froholdt

Justin Herron

Shaq Mason

Joe Thuney

Isaiah Wynn

OPTING OUT

Marcus Cannon

Tajee Noran

FALLING SHORT 

Ben Braden

Tyler Gauthier

Michael Onwenu

The Herald’s Take: Wynn, Thuney, Andrews and Mason are locks as starters. Beyond them, Froholdt has been impressive. He could easily be a backup at any of the interior positions, be it center or guard. Froholdt, who had a tough training camp in 2019 before an injury ended his season, has improved significantly. The same can be said for Eleumunor. He joined the team late last year, and never really got into much action. While he was primarily known as a guard, he’s shown the versatility to play tackle, and looks like he has a leg up to start at right tackle.

Veteran Cunningham is in the mix at tackle, along with rookie Herron, who has impressed at times and could be a backup swing tackle or guard. While the expectation was for Cajuste to perhaps take over at right tackle, he hasn’t been able to stay on the field, and hasn’t been great when he’s been out there. He did have a decent practice at the end of last week, so he sticks for now. One thing, however, is obvious: right tackle is the weakest link of the line. Rookie project Onwenu, meanwhile, is out for now.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE (4)

MAKING THE TEAM

Beau Allen

Adam Butler

Byron Cowart

Lawrence Guy

FALLING SHORT

Michael Barnett

Bill Murray

Nick Thurman

The Herald’s Take: Allen has been MIA. Hasn’t been at any of the practices. One report had him, or a person who looked like him, picking up take-out at a Patriot Place eatery. The Allen look-a-like was in a walking boot. Maybe he’ll turn up on the reserve PUP list. In his absence, second-year tackle Cowart has emerged. He’s been terrific against the run. He’s been learning from Guy, and Belichick called him one of the most “explosive” players the Patriots have had up front. Guy, who just got a raise, has been an effective presence up front, along with the emerging Butler. Murray, an undrafted rookie, has some promise, but looks like a practice squad candidate at this point.

EDGE DEFENDER (7)

MAKING THE TEAM

Shilique Calhoun

Brandon Copeland

Anfernee Jennings

John Simon

Josh Uche

Chase Winovich

Deatrich Wise Jr.

FALLING SHORT

Rashod Berry

Tashawn Bower

Derek Rivers

The Herald’s Take: Second-year edge rusher Winovich has had a good camp while Simon has been steady as usual. Rookies Jennings and Uche have exceeded expectations after a virtual offseason. Both look like they can contribute right away. Given their versatility, it’s possible one or both will spend some time on the inside.

Beyond the rookie duo, Wise has been a standout. He’s enjoyed a terrific camp. He might have been on the bubble, given he’s a bit of a square peg in a round hole in a 3-4 defense, but he’s been too good to send packing. The coaches love Calhoun, who is also a top special teams contributor. Copeland, a veteran, sticks while Rivers is the tough cut. After some injury time, he’s just started to make a case. We’ll see if he can continue to make a push. He might still get on. Berry, an undrafted rookie and converted tight end, has some skills. Maybe practice squad for him.

INSIDE LINEBACKER (3)

MAKING THE TEAM

Ja’Whaun Bentley

De’Jon Harris

Brandon King (PUP)

Cassh Maluia

OPTING OUT

Dont’a Hightower

FALLING SHORT

Terez Hall

The Herald’s Take: The number is small, but as mentioned, there are several “edge defenders” who have the versatility to play inside, namely Uche, Jennings and Copeland. In the big picture, Bentley is the man in charge now, and his voice bellows, especially with no fans in the stands. Rookie Maluia has flashed at times, making plays, showing off his athleticism. There’s still a significant learning curve, but he has promise. Harris making the squad would extend the Patriots’ annual inclusion of a rostered undrafted rookie free agent. The tough cut was Hall. He was making strides but got dinged up last week. King, meanwhile, will miss the first 6 games on PUP. He doesn’t count against the roster.

SAFETY (5)

MAKING THE TEAM

Terrence Brooks

Cody Davis

Kyle Dugger

Devin McCourty

Adrian Phillips

OPTING OUT

Patrick Chung

FALLING SHORT

None

The Herald’s Take: Second-round pick Dugger was one of the most impressive players during camp but has been held back recently due to injury. Still, it’s rather obvious he’s going to push the veterans for playing time. Brooks may have been in jeopardy, but has had a really good camp. He’s not going anywhere. Davis is as advertised as a special teamer, getting the highest praise from Matthew Slater. Phillips, meanwhile, has only gotten on the field the past few training camp sessions. He has some ground to make up.

CORNERBACK (6)

MAKING THE TEAM

Justin Bethel

Stephon Gilmore

J.C. Jackson

Jonathan Jones

Jason McCourty

Joejuan Williams

FALLING SHORT

Myles Bryant

Michael Jackson

D’Angelo Ross

The Herald’s Take: Gilmore, Jackson, Jones and McCourty are as good as it gets for a collection of four. After them, there isn’t much room to crack the lineup. Bethel is in, given his special teams prowess. Williams sticks, for now, given his draft status as a 2019 second-round pick. He has some versatility, able to play safety but that position is pretty well established, too. Bryant has been a playmaker. Maybe he’s a surprise and makes the team. Ditto Ross, who has also had impressive practices. As for Jackson, the not-so-gloved one, he’s gotten under Harry’s skin. That’s been his claim to fame.

SPECIALISTS (3)

MAKING THE TEAM

Jake Bailey

Joe Cardona

Nick Folk

FALLING SHORT

Justin Rohrwasser

The Herald’s Take: Do the Patriots really give up on a fifth-round pick so soon? Two weeks into camp, Rohrwasser hasn’t earned the job just yet. He’s improved since Folk’s arrival after an erratic start, but isn’t quite as dependable as the veteran, who was with the team last year. There’s been some talk about them keeping both. Can’t see that happening, but never say never. At this point, we’re going with Folk. The Patriots definitely know what they’re getting with him. Rohrwasser, who has a stronger leg, is a mystery. Folk is the safer choice for now. Punter Bailey just keeps booming moonshots.

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