Massachusetts coronavirus death toll could be much higher than reported, CDC data shows

The coronavirus death toll in Massachusetts and other hard-hit states could be much higher than reported, with spikes that are still unattributed to the contagious disease, data from the Centers for Disease Control shows.

Between March 8 and April 11, there were 1,200 more deaths than normal in Massachusetts, a New York Times analysis of the CDC data shows.

The CDC report also shows Massachusetts has seen more than 17,000 deaths from all causes since February, which is 111% of expected deaths.

“It’s a staggering and heartbreaking amount of mortality but given the amount of underreporting we have for COVID and what we are seeing out of New York, I think it’s not surprising,” said Sam Scarpino of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University.

“We’ve been assuming for quite awhile that the deaths were undercounted both because we know the cases are undercounted, but seeing the reports from New York and other cities where you have lots of individuals who are dying at home and not being tested for COVID,” said Scarpino.

The total deaths in seven states including Massachusetts, New York and other hot spots are almost 50% higher than normal for the five weeks between March and April, accounting for about 9,000 more deaths than documented in official reports.

“Getting an accurate count of how many individuals have died from COVID is the only way we are going to know what the true severity is,” said Scarpino.

The CDC report says deaths due to coronavirus may be misclassified as pneumonia or influenza deaths in the absence of positive test results.

That means increases in pneumonia or influenza deaths may demonstrate an excess of COVID-19-related mortality.

Ann Sheehy, immunologist and professor of biology at the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, said many are easily spooked by the numbers, but “abysmal” testing doesn’t yet allow for an accurate measure of coronavirus deaths.

“I am equally if not more concerned about the individuals who have succumbed at home who we don’t have counts for,” said Sheehy.

Sheehy said getting a grasp on deaths, cases and infected patients all boils down to testing, which still needs improvement.

“Knowing those numbers gives you an ability to plan rational public health policies,” said Sheehy.

A spokesman for the Executive Office of Public Safety and Security said earlier this month that the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner is collecting post-mortem samples for testing from unattended deaths with potential COVID infection.

OCME has responded to several dozen such deaths since they implemented the practice in March, which are reported to DPH. In an average year, about 60,000 people die in Massachusetts.

As the surge continues in the Bay State, cases reached more than 60,000 Wednesday with 3,405 total deaths.

from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/2YhVzGB