Iran’s retribution for Soleimani killing could be ‘spectacular’ or ‘circumspect,’ experts say
Iran won’t take the killing of one of its most high-profile generals lying down, security experts say — but now the question is whether the Islamic Republic will respond to the death of Gen. Qassem Soleimani with token pushback to save face or with a major escalation.
“Promises have been made that they will avenge, but I think it’s too early to say what they will do — but it would surprise me if they don’t try to hit the U.S. in a spectacular way,” said Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute.
A U.S. drone strike Thursday killed Soleimani, a top Iranian military leader who commands the Quds Force that’s covertly pushed Iran’s terror agenda and has been linked to the deaths of hundreds of U.S. troops in Iraq and thousands of Arabs across the region.
“There’s a reading now that they have misread Trump,” said Vatanka, saying an attack on a U.S. official is a potential response. “We’re getting closer to regime change now, and if they see this is regime change happening now, they have little else to lose.”
Monica Duffy Toft, of Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, said Iran likely will avoid a direct attack, and go with some sort of move like a cyber attack, blockade or a strike against a U.S. ally in the region.
“The Iranians are going to be very circumspect about this,” Duffy Toft said, adding that Iran likely will shop around for support from its international allies before making a move.
In expectation of retaliation, “The United States is going to batten down the hatches a little bit,” she said.
Victor Davis Hanson of the Hoover Institute said of Iran, “They can respond either proportionately or disproportionately. They hope they can weaken Trump in an election year and then get somebody who’s more malleable. They didn’t think he’d do it, and now they don’t have a lot of options.”
Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institute said, “The most pressing matter is preserving, if at all possible, the U.S. military partnership with Iraq.”
He wrote in a blog post that that’s the best way of maintaining stability in the region. He added that the U.S. needs to make sure it’s keeping its troops and ambassadors as safe as possible from Iranian aggression.
“We should try to make that kind of attack more difficult, and less likely to succeed,” O’Hanlon said. “It would be better if Iran could be content with causing some additional property damage, to military or diplomatic or oil-related infrastructure, and calling it a day.”
Stephen Walt, an international relations expert from Harvard University, said the general’s killing “invites Iranian retaliation, strengthens hardliners there, increases Iran’s incentive to acquire nuclear weapons, and will undermine the fragile government in Iraq.”
“By eschewing diplomacy and relying solely on threats and coercion, the Trump administration has left itself with no good options and increased the risk of war,” Walt told the Herald.
from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/2tvUU7i
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