Despite name, Joe K III has tough road ahead

Can a candidate be a favorite and an underdog at the same time?

Ordinarily the answer is no.

But if your name is Joe Kennedy anything is possible, even wresting the U.S. Senate seat from longtime Washington veteran Sen. Eddie Markey.

But despite the polls that put Kennedy ahead his decision to challenge Markey in the September 2020 Democratic primary, it will not be as easy as it looks.

Kennedy must articulate why Markey, a fellow progressive, should be ousted. He did not do that convincingly on Saturday, when he made his candidacy official.

The recent Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll showed that if the election were held today, Kennedy, 38, a four-term member of the U.S. House, would defeat Markey, 73, in a head to head contest by 14 points, 42% to 28%.

In a five-person primary, which includes three lesser candidates, Kennedy beats Markey by nine points, 35% to 26%. The other three candidates are labor lawyer Shannon Liss-Riordan, businessman Steve Pemberton and Allen R. Waters, a former Republican.

Even though the election is a long way off, Kennedy is the clear favorite.

Yet, he is also the “underdog” in that most of his peers in Congress and in the Massachusetts Legislature, all fellow Democrats, have endorsed Markey over him. This includes U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren. And while her Markey endorsement was made before Kennedy showed any interest in running, it has not stopped Markey from running her endorsement across social media.

And last week Markey was endorsed by U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

Kennedy has also been caught in the awkward position of campaigning for Warren in New Hampshire even though she is supporting Markey.

Speaking of endorsements — and even though Joe Kennedy’s forebears Ted Kennedy and John F. Kennedy served in the Senate — the Senatorial Campaign Committee, which supports incumbents, endorsed Markey.

“That’s why we were created, to support our incumbents,” Sen. Catherine Cortez of Nevada, the chairperson, said.

Markey “knows the issues that are important to Massachusetts. He’s been out front on so many issues, including climate change. He’s the candidate,” she told Politico.

Closer to home, five of the state’s nine members of the U.S. House — who work with Kennedy daily — have endorsed Markey over Kennedy, their House colleague.

The five are Reps. Richard Neal of Springfield, James McGovern of Worcester, Stephen Lynch of South Boston, Bill Keating of Cape Cod and Lori Trahan of Lowell.

Reps. Katherine Clark of Melrose, Seth Moulton of Salem and Ayanna Pressley of Boston have yet to announce a choice.

Joe Kennedy has fared even worse on Beacon Hill. Some 116 Democrats in the 160-member House and 40-member Senate have also endorsed Markey over Kennedy.

This includes the Democratic leaders of both branches — House Speaker Robert DeLeo and Senate President Karen Spilka — as well as several progressives.

With DeLeo at her side — and on the eve of last week’s Democratic Party’s “action agenda” convention in Springfield — Spilka said, “I stand by my endorsement of Senator Markey.”

DeLeo added, “I would also intend to keep my commitment to Senator Markey.”

Joe Kennedy’s problem on Beacon Hill is that many Democrat legislators do not know him. Markey has been around forever.

Like many people, local politicians may know the Kennedy name, but do not necessarily know this Kennedy, the son of Joe Kennedy II, and grandson of Robert F. Kennedy.

This surely will change as Kennedy campaigns. He is a vigorous and spirited campaigner. Indeed. some of the Markey endorsers have already begun to walk back their Markey endorsements now that Kennedy is in the fight.

Here is an old story. Running against incumbent Democrat President Jimmy Carter in 1980, the late Sen. Ted Kennedy was shocked when the leaders of the Massachusetts House came out in support of Carter.

The story, an embarrassment to Kennedy, went national. Kennedy’s critics mocked him for challenging Carter when he could not win the support of political leaders in his own backyard. Kennedy, of course, lost to Carter who was then defeated in the general election by Republican Ronald Reagan.

Those Democratic legislative leaders who crossed Kennedy were House Speaker Thomas W. McGee, House Majority Leader George Keverian and House Assistant Majority Jackie Murphy.

Keverian, who later become speaker, said at the time, “I know Jimmy Carter. I don’t know Kennedy. I never met the guy.”

Joe Kennedy will not make that mistake.

 

from Boston Herald https://ift.tt/2nk2Rt9